Dealt vs Opened vs 3-Bet Ranges

Real ranges fold low cards and keep the big suited ones. Almost every frequency bends.

PLO hand-class frequencies by range

How often a dealt, opened, or 3-bet hand holds each class. ×N compares each range to dealt.

A hand that holds…DealtBTN openBB 3-bet
Flush drawtwo or more spades on K♠9♠6♥21.4%23.3% ×1.127.4% ×1.3
Made flushtwo or more spades on K♠9♠6♠18.0%20.0% ×1.124.4% ×1.4
Straight (Q + J)at least one queen and one jack on K♠T♥9♦7.2%10.0% ×1.411.7% ×1.6
Straight (A + K)at least one ace and one king on Q♠J♥T♦7.2%15.7% ×2.221.9% ×3.1
Straight (2 + 4)at least one deuce and one four on A♠5♥3♦7.2%1.5% ×0.210.39% ×0.05
Seta pocket pair matching the board on J♠7♥2♦4.4%4.9% ×1.14.4% ×0.98
Pocket acestwo or more aces on J♠7♥2♦2.9%5.9% ×2.025.2% ×8.7
Pocket kingstwo or more kings on J♠7♥2♦2.9%5.9% ×2.014.3% ×5.0
Pocket queenstwo or more queens on J♠7♥2♦2.9%5.6% ×2.08.4% ×2.9
Flush draw, high flush cardstwo or more hearts on A♥Q♥6♠21.4%20.9% ×0.9822.7% ×1.1
Flush draw, low flush cardstwo or more hearts on 7♥5♥K♠21.4%25.2% ×1.232.1% ×1.5

Same draw odds, different range

A random hand holds a flush draw the same 21.4% of the time on both flops. The played ranges disagree.

High flush cards
Dealt 21.4%
BTN open 20.9%
BB 3-bet vs BTN 22.7%
Low flush cards
Dealt 21.4%
BTN open 25.2%
BB 3-bet vs BTN 32.1%

Played ranges keep big suited cards, so a flush draw turns up more often than the dealt 21.4%. How much more depends on which cards of the suit are on the board. With low flush cards the 3-bettor holds one 32.1% of the time, ×1.5 the dealt rate. With the ace and queen of the suit on board it drops to 22.7%: those two cards block the big suited combos that carry most of its flush draws.

Methodology

The played ranges come from a 6-max 100bb PLO4 preflop solve, a GTO solver's preflop strategy. This PLO4 snapshot uses profile v20310_g1_fb100_tb75_rb75_tt1_rt1 from the current versioned solve.

  • Dealt - every starting hand, counted equally.
  • BTN open - the button's first-in raise strategy, weighted across 47.4% of unblocked deals.
  • BB 3-bet - the big blind's 3-bet strategy facing a button open, weighted across 10.3% of unblocked deals. This is the action range at that node, not the chance of reaching it.
  • Each hand is weighted by how often the range actually plays it, then the percentages are counted over all 270,725 4-card combos. The count is exact for the stored solver weights (rounded to 0.5-percentage-point steps); no Monte Carlo simulation is used.
  • On a board, any hand using one of the shown cards is removed first, so the percentages cover only the hands still possible. The BB strategy is evaluated as a standalone action range; the count does not condition on the button's specific private cards.