Bet Sizing & MDF
See the immediate call price, zero-equity bluff MDF and polarized river bluff share for each bet size. A calls-only ladder shows how repeated MDF calls shrink a range.
What every bet size requires
| Bet | Caller needsb/(1+2b) | Bluff shareb/(1+2b) | MDF1/(1+b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pot | 33.3% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| 3/4 pot | 30.0% | 30.0% | 57.1% |
| 2/3 pot | 28.6% | 28.6% | 60.0% |
| 1/2 pot | 25.0% | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| 1/3 pot | 20.0% | 20.0% | 75.0% |
| 1/4 pot | 16.7% | 16.7% | 80.0% |
| 1/6 pot | 12.5% | 12.5% | 85.7% |
- Caller needs: immediate-showdown equity price before rake or future bets. The call puts b (the bet as a fraction of the pot) into a final pot of 1+2b. Flop and turn equity may realize differently.
- Bluff share: the bluff fraction of a balanced, polarized river betting range. Equal to Caller needs by design: a bluff-catcher's equity is the bluff share, so a balanced range bluffs exactly at the caller's price.
- MDF: minimum defense frequency against a zero-equity bluff on an initial heads-up bet, without rake or future action. Defend less and that bluff profits from folds before card-specific effects. Defense can include calls and raises.
The call-down ladder
If the same pot fraction is bet on each street and the opponent calls exactly MDF of the range reaching each bet, MDFn of the flop range calls through. This illustration has no raises.
| Bet | 1 streetMDF | 2 streetsMDF² | 3 streetsMDF³ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pot | 50.0% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| 2/3 pot | 60.0% | 36.0% | 21.6% |
| 1/2 pot | 66.7% | 44.4% | 29.6% |
| 1/3 pot | 75.0% | 56.3% | 42.2% |
| 1/4 pot | 80.0% | 64.0% | 51.2% |
If they call exactly half on each of three pot-sized bets, 12.5% of the original range calls down. Board runouts and actual play change which hands remain.