Poker Variance Calculator

How much swing is normal? Monte Carlo your next 100,000 hands or 10,000 tourneys and see where you actually land. Downswings, risk of ruin, and what your "Am I a winner?" math really says.

I win bb/100 over hands of

. SD 140 bb/100

-100 BI

+100 BI

020k40k60k80k100k Hands

Probability of profit

74.9%

Expected profit

+29.6 BI

95% confidence range

−53 BI … +117 BI

1,000 runs simulated

Play 2.5M hands, moving up when you clear the threshold and back down on downswings. Every setting below is editable. Test your own assumptions.

Start BI at for M hands Winrate at start bb/100, drops per step up Move up at BI, down at BI Don't move up past

Derived winrate per stake

PLO10 +9.0

PLO20 +8.0

PLO25 +7.0

PLO50 +6.0

PLO100 +5.0

PLO200 +4.0

PLO500 +3.0

PLO1K +2.0

PLO2K +1.0

PLO5K 0.0

PLO10K −1.0

More analysis

Sorted from best to worst. The median is the middle (the "typical" outcome), not the EV.

Top 1% luckbox

+128 BI

Top 5%

+103 BI

Top 25%

+59.5 BI

Median the typical run

+29.7 BI

Bottom 25%

−48 bb

Bottom 5%

−39.7 BI

Bottom 1% nightmare

−72.5 BI

How deep can the cumulative profit line dip, and how big a starting bankroll do you need so it (almost) never dips past zero?

I have BI

Risk of ruin

15.4%

over 100,000 hands

Required bankroll by risk tolerance

Click a row to re-run the sensitivity table below at that target.

If you're wrong about your winrate (5% RoR target)

Scenario	Assumed winrate	Bankroll needed
Your assumption	3.00 bb/100	97.9 BI
Slightly worse	1.50 bb/100	196 BI
Much worse	0.75 bb/100	391 BI
Breakeven	0.00 bb/100	∞

A small misread of your true winrate balloons the bankroll you actually need. If you're unsure, read the Am I a winner? card below.

How often a deep downswing shows up, and how long losing stretches drag on, under +3 bb/100 · 100k hands · SD 140.

How deep, and how long

Probability of a downswing ≥

5 BI >99.9%

10 BI >99.9%

25 BI 89.3%

50 BI 28.8%

100 BI 1.0%

Probability of a slump lasting ≥

2.0k >99.9%

5.0k >99.9%

10k 99.6%

25k 85.7%

50k 42.1%

Peak-to-trough inside a window

Your worst drawdown inside any given stretch of hands. Pick the threshold, see how often it shows up in a month / quarter / full sample.

Threshold

In any 8.3k-hand stretch

94.2%

chance of dropping ≥20 BI

In any 25k-hand stretch

96.6%

chance of dropping ≥20 BI

Over the full 100k hands

96.6%

chance of dropping ≥20 BI

If your results so far are +3.00 bb/100 over 100k hands, what can you honestly claim about your true skill?

Probability you are actually a winning player

73.2%

Credible interval on your true winrate

Confidence	Lower	Upper
60%	-0.90	+5.92
75%	-2.15	+7.17
90%	-4.15	+9.17
95%	-5.43	+10.44

Hands needed until you know your winrate to…

within bb/100 at confidence 7.5M hands

Total for the year · 1,200,000 hands +207 BI

100,000 hands /

Jan

+70.3 BI

+0.9σ

Feb

+99.4 BI

+1.6σ

Mar

+104 BI

+1.7σ

Apr

−53.3 BI

-1.9σ

May

−50.1 BI

-1.8σ

Jun

−3.6 BI

-0.8σ

Jul

−105 BI

-3.0σ

Aug

+30.5 BI

+0.0σ

Sep

−22.6 BI

-1.2σ

Oct

+91.2 BI

+1.4σ

Nov

+18.5 BI

-0.3σ

Dec

+26.5 BI

-0.1σ

🔥 ≥+2σ blessed 🍀 ≥+1σ lucky ❄️ ≤−1σ unlucky 💀 ≤−2σ disaster

Best month

Mar

+104 BI

Worst month

Jul

−105 BI

A single year rolled from your exact distribution. Hit roll enough times and you'll see how wild a "normal" year can look.

Model a stake deal. The backer absorbs the losses; you split the profits at each chop event (after makeup clears).

Backer takes % Session length hands Chop every sessions Backer bankroll BI

Your EV per 100,000 hands

0 bb

Backer's EV

0 bb

% of sims ending in makeup

<0.1%

Avg makeup owed at end

0 bb

Avg worst makeup (any point)

0 bb

Backer risk of ruin

<0.1%

Backer absorbs losses one-for-one; takes 50% of cleared profit at each chop. Chops happen every 10 sessions (25,000 hands). Your EV is strictly less than solo play, but you play bigger without risking your own cash.