Poker Variance Calculator
How much swing is normal? Monte Carlo your next 100,000 hands or 10,000 tourneys and see where you actually land. Downswings, risk of ruin, and what your "Am I a winner?" math really says.
Cash volume is modeled in 100-hand blocks; accepted horizon: 100,000 hands.
Outcome probabilities are estimates from 1,000 runs. Zero observed events do not prove zero risk; a one-sided 95% upper bound after zero in 1,000 runs is about 0.30%.
This calculator simulates independent cash 100-hand blocks or independent tournament payouts under your chosen assumptions. Expected profit uses the model average; outcome bands and risk estimates come from finite Monte Carlo runs. The figures are conditional on the entered winrate, volatility, payout model, and horizon.
Poker Variance Calculator FAQ
How it works
Explore possible cash and tournament results, downswings, funding needs, and uncertainty about an observed winrate. Presets are illustrative and adjustable.
What do the chart bands mean?
At each checkpoint, the shaded bands cover the middle 70% and 95% of simulated outcomes. They are pointwise estimates, not corridors that 95% of entire paths stay inside. The selected highest and lowest runs are ranked by ending result.
How does cash hand volume work?
The cash simulation uses 100-hand blocks. Entered hands are normalized to the nearest 100 and the accepted count is displayed. More hands increase absolute profit spread roughly with the square root of volume while uncertainty about the average rate narrows.
What bankroll does the model require?
The finite-horizon cash estimate counts runs whose cumulative profit touches the starting bankroll deficit. Tournament funding risk counts runs unable to pay an entry before it is played. Main calculations assume fixed stakes and no withdrawals, reloads, or move-downs. Zero events in a finite sample do not prove zero true risk.
What SD should I use?
Use the standard deviation of actual results per 100 hands in the same units as your winrate. All-in-adjusted results describe a different random variable and are not a substitute for actual bankroll volatility. Presets are starting assumptions, not fitted population estimates.
How are tournament payouts modeled?
The calculator uses synthetic power-law or equal-seat payout shapes. They are illustrative, not copies of a specific poker room schedule. Requested ROI can be constrained by the payout model; the result reports any difference between requested and modeled ROI.
How is the winner estimate calculated?
Enter an observed rate and sample separately from the projected scenario. The card combines a stated Normal prior with a Normal likelihood approximation using assumed volatility. It assumes independent, stationary results and does not establish skill with certainty.
Does multi-tabling change the model?
The optional penalty reduces the projected cash winrate by the amount you enter and leaves per-100-hand SD fixed. It is a scenario input, not a claim that adding tables necessarily reduces your actual winrate.
What do backing and stake progression show?
These are independently configured simulations with their own deal or stake rules. They are illustrative scenarios and do not change the main fixed-stake bankroll result.