The PLO Frequencies Worth Memorizing
Value betting, bluff-catching, and bluffing all reduce to the same question: how often does a given hand class show up in a range? Answering it in game is a two-step skill. Step one is rote memorization of how often each class is dealt. Step two is adjusting those numbers for the action in front of you. The table is deliberately rough, because rough is what you can actually use at the table.
| Class | Dealt frequency |
|---|---|
| Flush or flush draw (two of a board suit) | ~20% (rises to ~30% in a 3-bet range) |
| Each two-card straight combo | ~7-7.5% (sum all three on a three-straight board: ~20%) |
| Trips on a paired board | ~15% (strict counts run nearer 12%; either way, many times your set frequency) |
| Pocket pair of a specific rank | ~3% dealt, ~1.5% once that rank is on the board |
| Each specific two pair | ~4% (sum the combos: K-J, K-4, and J-4 on a K-J-4 flop make ~12%) |
| Any named rank | ~28% dealt, ~23% once it's on the board, ~30% for a rank not on the board |
Two of these deserve a highlight. Trips at 15% against a specific set at 1.5% is a tenfold gap, and it is the one players get wrong most expensively: people call down paired boards as if trips were rare and get shown it constantly, then conclude they run bad. And the 7% per straight combo trick works because summing three overlapping combos at 7% each lands you near the true ~20%, so you never have to think about the overlap.
Applying the table takes two moves. First, defense narrows ranges fast: calling a pot-sized bet cuts a range roughly in half, so a class that never folds roughly doubles in concentration per street. A range that was ~20% flushes on a monotone flop passes 50% by the time it has called a flop bet and a turn pot. Second, raising subtracts a class from later calling ranges: on a one-straight board where the straight raises the turn a lot, the river calling range holds fewer straights than the raw math says, which is exactly why your sets and strong two pairs can keep value betting there.
The headline application is "how often am I beat," counted from the top class down and tested against the 20% threshold for a pot-sized value bet. Your in-game answer will often be off by a few points, and that is fine. The goal is to stop potting rivers where you are beat 35% of the time, not to split 18 from 20. Build the skill away from the table: guess the frequency first, then check it against the exact numbers on the hand distribution page, the board and hand probabilities guide, and the range frequency reference. The guess-then-verify loop is what moves the table from this page into your head.