Dealt vs Opened vs 3-Bet Ranges
Real ranges fold low cards and keep suited aces. Almost every frequency bends.
PLO4 hand-class frequencies by range
How often a dealt, opened, or 3-bet hand holds each class. ×N compares each range to dealt.
| A hand that holds… | Dealt | BTN open | BB 3-bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush drawtwo or more spades on K♠9♠6♥ | 21.4% | 23.4% ×1.1 | 26.8% ×1.3 |
| Made flushtwo or more spades on K♠9♠6♠ | 18.0% | 20.0% ×1.1 | 24.0% ×1.3 |
| Straight (Q + J)at least one queen and one jack on K♠T♥9♦ | 7.2% | 9.4% ×1.3 | 9.4% ×1.3 |
| Broadway straight (A + K)at least one ace and one king on Q♠J♥T♦ | 7.2% | 15.1% ×2.1 | 25.5% ×3.6 |
| Wheel (2 + 4)at least one deuce and one four on A♠5♥3♦ | 7.2% | 1.6% ×0.23 | 0.59% ×0.08 |
| Pocket acestwo or more aces, preflop (no board) | 2.6% | 5.3% ×2.1 | 26.2% ×10.2 |
| Pocket kingstwo or more kings, preflop (no board) | 2.6% | 5.3% ×2.0 | 12.6% ×4.9 |
| Pocket queenstwo or more queens, preflop (no board) | 2.6% | 5.1% ×2.0 | 7.0% ×2.7 |
| Flush draw, high flush cardstwo or more hearts on A♥Q♥6♠ | 21.4% | 21.1% ×0.99 | 21.5% ×1.0 |
| Flush draw, low flush cardstwo or more hearts on 7♥5♥K♠ | 21.4% | 25.1% ×1.2 | 31.7% ×1.5 |
Same draw odds, different range
A random hand holds a flush draw the same 21.4% of the time on both flops. The played ranges disagree.
High flush cards
Dealt 21.4%
BTN open 21.1%
BB 3-bet vs BTN 21.5%
Low flush cards
Dealt 21.4%
BTN open 25.1%
BB 3-bet vs BTN 31.7%
Played ranges keep big suited cards. With low flush cards on board the 3-bettor holds a flush draw 31.7%, ×1.5 the dealt 21.4%. With the ace and queen of the suit on board it sits right around baseline at 21.5%: those two cards block the big suited combos that carry most of its flush draws.
Methodology
The played ranges come from a 6-max 100bb solve, a GTO solver's preflop strategy.
- Dealt - every starting hand, counted equally.
- BTN open - the hands the button opens for a raise, about 48.6% of all deals.
- BB 3-bet - the hands the big blind 3-bets against that button open, about 9.4% of all deals.
- Each hand is weighted by how often the range actually plays it, then the percentages are counted exactly. No simulation.
- On a board, any hand using one of the shown cards is removed first, so the percentages cover only the hands still possible.